Sunday, December 17, 2017

Continuing decline in birth rate

The government has been trying to increase the birth rate in Singapore for the past three decades. The failed miserably and the birthrate continue to decline.

What are the main reasons for the continuing decline? I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd.

Three factors accounted for 98% of the votes.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=407

Check medical history before accepting the application

I know of a few cases where the insurance company rejected a medical claim on the grounds of alleged non-disclosure of a past medical condition. Usually, the insured was not aware about the medical history or the need to disclose it. The medical bills can come to several tens or thousands of dollars.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should MAS disallow insurers from rejecting claims due to alleged non-disclosure of past medical history?

Here are the votes:
a) 58% said that the insurer should check on the medical history before accepting the application, rather than at the time of processing the claim.
b) 15% said the the insured is not aware of the need to disclose the medical history.
c) 13% said that the insurance policy should have an indisputability clause which bars the insurance company from disputing the claim on the grounds of non-disclosure after 1 year.
d) 8% said that the agent does not do a good job in asking for this information in the application.
e) 8% said that the current practice is satisfactory. The consumers should be responsible to disclose the past medical history.

A total of 92% said that the current practice should be changed.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=408

Saturday, December 16, 2017

Some questions about citizenship

Here are some arguments why citizenship should not be revoked so easily. If a person has committed a crime, he should be punished according to the law, but the citizen should not be revoked.

It also brings the question about whether citizenship should be given out so easily. This is a separate question, but it is worth considering as well.

https://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2017/12/16/can-citizenship-be-revoked-due-to-criminal-acts-even-though-one-is-already-punished-by-law/

I hold the view that citizenship should not be given easily and it should not be taken away easily.

I also hold the view that the burden of citizen should be shared equally. It is quite ridiculous that local born male citizens have to served two full years of national service and another ten years of reservist duty whereas new citizens escape this burden.

This burden can be made fairer by paying the citizens a market salary for the time that they have to serve in the military service.

Tan Kin Lian

Pay for hawker assistant

How much should a hawker assistant be paid a month for 40 hour work week?
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Should the citizen of the S League player be taken back?

Recently, the government took back the citizenship given to a S League player for being involved in a global match fixing scam.

I posed this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should the citizenship of the S League player be taken away for global match fixing?

58% are in support of this action. 42% are against it.

You can view the breakdown of the votes and the reasons in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=406

Friday, December 15, 2017

Did Li Shengwu scandalise the court?

The Attorney General is charging Li Shengwu for scandalising the court by referring to a "pliant court system" in one of his Facebook post.

Did Li Shengwu scandalised the court? What does the ordinary people think?

You can see their votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=402

Click on the Facebook or Google logo to sign in.






Will Seah MM take over as CEO of SMRT?

Seah MM was recently appointed as chairman of SMRT. Later, he resigned from his full time job to focus totally on SMRT.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do you expect Seah MM (current chairman) to take over as CEO of SMRT?

a) 35% said that he will be appointed as executive chairman but Desmond Kuek will remain CEO.
b) 25% said that Seah MM will quite likely assume the position of CEO, replaceing DK.
c) 20% said that this is part of the plan decided earlier.
d) 12% said that this change is likely to happen within the next six months.
e) 8% said that this is not likely to happen.

A total of 57% expect Seah MM to take over as CEO while 35% expect that he will be executive chairman and DK will remain as CEO fo SMRT.

View the breakdown of the votes in 

Should the government worry about the increasing number of elderly in the population?

Over the years, the government has been expressing concern about the increase in the elderly in the population.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should we worry about the increasing number of elderly in the population?

Here are the replies:

a) 67% said that the government does not provide a pension to the elderly, so the elderly will not be a burden to the state.
b) 14% said that the elderly can downgrade their property and get cash for their living expenses.
c) 11% said that most of the elderly can take care of themselves financially.
d) 8% said the the elderly will be a burden to the resources of the state.

A total of 92% said that the concern of the government is misplaced.

View the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=405

Should condo apartments be allowed for rental under AirBnB?

The government passed a regulation recently to disallow apartments in condominiums to be rental out for short term stays. Recently, the government sought public consultation over this issue.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should condo owners be allowed to rent our their apartment for short term stay under AirBNB

Here are the votes:

a) 36% said that short term rentals should be disallowed as it affects the neighbors.
b) 28% said that short term rentals should be allowed in condominiums, similar to the practice in private landed properties.
c) 28% said that this should be allowed provided that it does not disturb the neighbors.
d) 8% said tht it should be allowed but the guests cannot use the condo facilities.

A total of 64% are in favor of short term rental of condo apartments under AirBnB but they have some conditions to the use.

View the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=404






Should banks impose a charge for ATM cash withdrawals?

Should banks impose a charge for cash withdrawals from ATMs?

Obviously, the answer is NO. But what if they banks offer a higher interest rate on deposits and reduce their charges on credit cards?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Bleak prospects for retail sector

My friend is in the retail trade, online business. He said that the retail sector in Singapore faced two big problems:

a) There is a big over-supply of retail space. Too many malls were buit and sold at high prices. The landlord needs a high rental to pay the mortgage and get their expected return. But the retailers cannot afford these rentals as the customers are spread around too many malls. Business is poor.

b) More customers are now buying online. The recent entry of Amazon into Singapore will pose a big threat to stores selling branded goods. Amazon is able to see the goods at half the prices of the retailers. Even the non-branded products are affected by the online merchants.

c) There is some hope for the F&B sector as they are not affected by the online stores. But these operators are affected by the high cost of wages, due to government levy on foreign workers and the reluctance of locals to take up these jobs. These outlets are also struggling.

The positive side is that the rentals for retail sector will have to fall by a lot. At that time, the F&B sector may be able to survive. But that will take a long time to sort out.

The REITS (real estate investment trusts) will soon feel the pain from lower retail rentals and lower occupancy.



This is a bleak prospect for the retail sector.

Tan Kin Lian






Tan Kin Lian

Why does the government want to build 17,000 new flats next year?

Why does the government want HDB to build 17,000 new flats next year?

There are four possible reasons. Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Thursday, December 14, 2017

E-Payment is different from the past NETS payment

The general public is used to paying in cash. They think that it is the "best way" to make payments. The hawkers and merchants also think the same.

If this is the case, why did China move towards e-payments using AliPay and Wechat Pay?

I can tell you that the people in China are not stupid. They know that e-payments save them time in counting money, giving change, banking in the money, etc.

The time saved means more time for business. They do not mind paying a small fee for e-payment as it is small relative to the business that they can do with the extra time.

Our merchants are concerned about the cost of setting up the infrastructure for e-payment, the fee that they have to pay and the delay in receiving their money.

These are valid concerns, but they refer to the old e-payment system using NETS.

The new payment system using e-wallents (similar to AliPay and Wechat Pay) do not have these issues. If ou have used DBS PayLah or similar wallets issued by OCBC and UOB, you will know what I mean.

The e-payments using the e-wallets have these advantages:

a) There is no need to incure any infrastructure cost for merchants and hawkers. They only need to use their mobile phone with access to free wifi or a data plan. Most of them already have it.

b) There is no fee payable for the e-payment transfers. It is free for the time being.

c) They get their money in their e-wallet immediately. They can transfer it to their bank account free.

The only problem is that there are too many platforms (i.e DBS, OCBC, UOB, Grab, NETS, Apple, Android, etc).

This problem can be addressed by setting up a clearning house, as explained here:
http://www.tankinlian.com/ArticleDisplay.aspx?ID=1445

The clearing house has to be set up by MAS or the Association of Banks or by a party approved by MAS.

If we have a clearing house, we can make e-payment successful in Singapore.

Do not get the misunderstanding that e-payment is exclusive. Cash payments will continue to be allowed (as in China) but, over time, more customers will prefer to pay through e-wallets.

Tan Kin Lian






Singapore has to deal with several challenges

Headlines in the Straits Times:

Better job prospects but long-term jobless figures up.
Number of resident unemployed for at least 25 weeks highest in Sept: MOM report.

Who are the unemployed residents who could not find jobs for 6 months or longer?

I guess they are:
a) PMETs
b) Unemployed graduates.

If we include the young people driving Uber and Grab, the figures would be more worrisome. It would add to the long-term problem.

What are the underlying causes of this situation?

Much has been written about the plight of PMETs who are displaced by cheaper "foreign talents". Our PMETs cannot accept the lower pay as they have families to feed and mortgages to pay, and these are very expensive in Singapore. Even if they are willing to accept lower pay, the employers still prefer foreign workers for various reasons.

What about the unemployed graduates and those who are "employed" as Grab or Uber drivers? We have a serious problem about the waste of resources. These graduates spend several years to acquire a paper degree that do not get them a job.

The economy provide jobs for only a certain number of graduates each year, and these jobs go to the better quality graduates. The rest could not find jobs.

In the past, these graduates could work as property or insurance agents. Even these lucrative jobs are now in over-supply and the demand for their services have also dropped.

There are real jobs that have to be done in the economy, such as in the construction, engineering and technical fields. However, these jobs required real skills that the grauduates do not have. Their time was spent in acquiring the paper degree.

We have serious challenges to address. They require a restructing of the pay structure of jobs and the education system.

We also have to restructure the "national service" obligations imposed on our young males over more than a dozen years, putting them at a disadvantage against foreign workers. 

We can look towards Germany and Switzerland for the answers to these challenges.

Fortunately, with the huge reserves, the government has the financial resources to deal with these challenges. We need them to have the wisdom to recognize the real problems and the courage to deal with them. Are our ministers up to mark?

Tan Kin Lian










Wednesday, December 13, 2017

Mindef hire hackers to test the vulerabilities of their internet portals

Mindef is offering rewards to hackers who are able to find vulnerabilities in their internet portals. Is this a good approach?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Will the electric car sharing scheme succeed?

An electric car sharing scheme, called Blue SG, has started in Singapore.

Will it be successful?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Will Lee Hongyi's entry into politics be good for Singapore?

Li Hongyi is the son of PM Lee. Some people expect him to enter politics and take over as a future prime minister. He has already said that he is not interested in politics, but many people do not believe this statement.

A few months ago, I asked his question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Would Li Hongyi's entry into politics be good for Singapore?

Here are the votes:

a) 46% said no. It would be a bad example of nepotism.
b) 24% said no. He will not be a good leader as he does not know the lives of ordinary people.
c) 17% said no. It will be bad to continue the policies of Lee HL.
d) 6% said yes. He is a brilliant and capable leader.
e) 6% said yes. He will continue the legacy of his family in leading Singapore.

A total of 88% voted that this would be a bad outcome for Singapore. Only 12% said that it would be good for Singapore.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=327

How will PM Najib respond to this request?


Anwar Ibrahm's lawyer has asked PM Najib to release Anwar from hospital early.  See here.

Will PM Najib grant this request?
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

E-bikes should be banned on walkways

Someone wrote to the newspaper to complain that it is dangerous to allow e-bikes on the walkways as it might cause collision with pedestrains.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - should e-bikes be banned from walkways.

Here are the votes:

a) 61% said that they are dangerous for pedestrians and should be banned from walkeays.
b) 20% said that there were a few accidents but the number is quite small. We should continue to monitor the situation.
c) 16% said that the riders and e-bikes should be licensed.
d) 2% said that the speed is not fast. The rider can be expected to be careful.

A total of 81% said that the use of e-bikes on walkways should be banned or restricted.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=400

Monday, December 11, 2017

Are we already a smart nation?

The minister in charge of the Smart Nation project said that we are already a smart nation. He quoted many new initiatives that have been implemented.

Do you agree with him?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Long queue at opening of Gong Cha outlet

The tea outlet Gong Cha operated in Singapore previously but closed its operation on termination of its franchise agreement.

It reopened recently. It first outlet attracted a long queue with people waiting for many hours in the queue.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is it good for people to queue for many hours at the opening of the Gong Cha outlet?

Here are the votes.

a) 33% said that the long queue generate publicity.
b) 24% said that we should look for a better system to handle the queue more efficiently.
c) 22% said the the people enjoyed queuing. It is a good way to pass the time.
d) 20% said that it might generate quarrels when some people perceive that other people are breaking the queue.

A total of 55% is happy with the current arrangement while 45% prefer a new arrangement to spread the crowd.








Sunday, December 10, 2017

Police action agains illegal brothels

The police took strong actions taken by the police in conducting raids on illegal brothels.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/shanmugam-voices-support-for-police-raids-on-illegal-brothels-9485210

Do you agree with the actions taken by the police?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Recognition of Jerusalem as capital of Isreal

President Trump has now recognized Jerusalem as capital of Isreal. A few countries have issued statements against this decision. Riots have occurred in a few countries.

Will this decision lead to more problems ahead? Will there be more acts of terrorism?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

A strong fight between Comfort Taxis and Grab

We are likely to see a strong fight between Comfort Taxis and Grab for control over the taxi and rides market. Is this competition good for the public that uses the transport?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Saturday, December 09, 2017

Will the strategic tie up with Uber be beneficial to Comfort Taxis?

Comfort Taxis entered into a strategic alliance with Uber to benefit from Uber's taxi booking app. I do not understand the rationale.

Comfort had an excellent taxi booking service using a call center. For a long time, it dominated the taxi booking market. Most taxi calls are made through Comfort.

When booking through apps became popular, Comfort already developed its app to provide this facility to its customers.

The main pricing scheme for Comfort is the standard taxi fare plus a booking fee. Comfort has also introduced its fixed fare tariff.

Comfort started to lose its market share only after Grab introduced its attractive promotions. Their customers could get a $5, $4 or $3 discount for each ride. This is very expensive for Grab and must have cost massive losses. It is not sustainable for the long term.

Grab also offered attractive incentives to entice Comfort drivers to move over to them. Again, this is done at a heavy cost to Grab.

Comfort could have responded to Grab by offering similar promotions to customers. They could have maintained their market share or suffer a smaller erosion.

Comfort could also have responded to the the loss of taxi drivers by offering incentives for their drivers to take bookings. They can also lower their rental rates and lock up their drivers on a 6 or 12 month contract.

By partnering with Uber, I suspect that Comfort is not addressing the root of the problem. Customers do not need fancy features. They want to get a taxi quickly and they want the fare to be lower. If Comfort could match what Grab is doing, their customers will still prefer to ride with Comfort.

Rejection of medical claims due to non-disclosure of past medical conditions

Many consumers had experienced rejection of their medical claims under private Shield plans due to alleged non-disclosure of their past medical conditions. In some cases, they were not aware about the past medical conditions or the need to disclose them.

Should MAS disallow insurers from rejecting claims due to alleged non-disclosure of past medical history?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Low birth rate in Singapore

What is the main cause of the low birth rate in Singapore?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Express and local services on subway system in New York city

When I first visited New York City almost 40 years ago, I observed that some lines of their subway has a local service and an express service.

The local service stops at every station while the express service stops at the major stations.

This arrangement requires two separate rails in each direction. Each station probably needs a separate platform for each direction with two rails for each platform for the local and express services.

It will reduce the travel time. A commuter can take the express train until the stop before the final destination and change to a local train for the remaining stops.

I wondered at that time why our MRT did not provide for this kind of local and express trains.

I guess that there is no need to use this approach for our MRT in Singapore. The distance is really quite short, unlike the transit systems in other major cities that cover a much bigger geographical area.

There is possibly another reason. The stations for our MRT system are about 1.6 km apart. Commuters have to take the bus to the destinations between the MRT stations. Perhaps our MRT operates like the express service in New York City and our buses provide the local service?

I wonder what is the average distance between the stations in the express service in New York City?

Sign-in to websites

Many high volume websites face the challenge of designing a sign-in system that is secure (against hackers) and is convenient for users.

Google and Facebook met this challenge quite well. Their sign-in process is simple and quite secure.

Microsoft and Apple did it rather poorly. Their process is quite cumbersome.

I faced the problem when I changed to a new device (e.g. laptop, desktop, tablet or mobile phone) and requires to re-enter the passwords that were "remembered" in my old devices.

I cannot remember the passwords that were used previously, especially for websites that require a "strong password" and insists that it should be a "new" password that was not used before.

The websites of the government agencies in Singapore probably beat them all. They are the most troublesome.

Some people use an app called LastPass that remembered the passwords used before. I tried it, and found it to be more troublesome than helpful. So, I gave up on it.

There must be a better way to address this challenge.

The approach that I prefer is to allow the user to decide on the level of security that is really needed. For websites that do not contain sensitive information, allow them to use any password that they like. They can opt to use a strong password or even to have a 2FA authentication.

Should we keep the mandatory death sentence for drug offences?

Malaysia has changed the law to remove the mandatory death sentence for drug offences. Under the new law, the death sentence will be at the discretion of the judges.

Singapore continues to impose a mandatory death sentence for drug offences. Should Singapore changed the law to give the discretion to the judges?

Here are the views of the people who voted in The Wisdom of the Crowd.

a) 40% said that we should keep the mandatory death sentence to deter drug trafficking.
b) 36% said that this involves human lives. We should not impose the death sentence when there is an element of doubt.
c) 20% said that we should give the discretion to the judge to impose the appropriate sentence.
d) 4% said that we should keep the mandatory death sentence to remove the burden from the judges.

A total of 56% said that we should remove the mandatory death sentence and let the judge decide if the death sentence should be imposed on each individual case. The other 44% prefer that the mandatory death sentence be kept.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=397

Should e-scooters be banned from the roads?

There were a few serious accidents and fatal casualties involving e-scooters on the roads.

Should e-scooters be banned from the roads? Here are the views of the people who voted in The Wisdom of the Crowd.

a) 43% said that e-scooters should be banned due to the many accidents.
b) 30% said that the riders should be required to get a licence.
c) 17% said the the vehicles should be licenced.
d) 11% said that they provide a useful form of transport and should be allowed on the road. There is no need for licence or other restrictions.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=396

What should SMRT do about the frequent breakdowns of the MRT trains?

After installing the new signal system from Thales, the NS and EW lines of the MRT system experienced frequent breakdowns and a collision at Joo Koon.

Some people think that more time is needed for the new signal system to be tested. Other people think that sufficient time has already been given and that the frequent breakdowns are unacceptable.

What should the SMRT do about frequent breakdowns?

Here are the views of the people who voted in The Wisdom of the Crowd.

a) 58% said that SMRT should terminate the Thales contract and revert to the old system. This option is still available.
b) 16% said that SMRT and LTA should be given more time to sort out the problem with the Thales system.
c) 14% said that we should provide alternative transport to reduce the load on the MRT trains
d) 12% said that the breakdowns do not happen every day. We should continue to use the MRT system.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=395



Sentence meted to couple who tortured the disabled waitress

A couple was sentenced to a total of 30.5 years for torturing a disabled waitress, who was their tenant, for 8 months and causing her death.

Was the sentence too lenient?

Here are the views of the people who voted in The Wisdom of the Crowd.

a) 49% said that the sentences were too lenient. They expected a longer sentence.
b) 34% said that this matter should be left to the judge as they had a fuller access to the facts compared to the general public.
c) 15% said that the sentences are quite long and are adequate.

I have observed in the past that many people in Singapore tend to take an extreme view. This is reflected in the 49%. In this case, it is balanced by other people who take a more moderate perspective.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=398

Lessons from bubbles and ponzis

When a bubble burst, all the people who invested are caught. They cannot sell the assets that they are holding. Nobody wants to buy them.

This was the case with the tulip bubble, with the ponzi schemes and is likely to be the case with Bitcoin (when it burst eventually).

When people were investing in the gold bar ponzi scheme, many investors knew that it was a ponzi, but they thought that they could get out at the "right time". When they made the decision to get out, it was too late. Many other people also decided to get out. There were no buyers.

If you invest in a property bubble, it is not so bad. You can still hold on to the property and wait for the next cycle. You may have to wait for three decades, as has happened in Japan, and still there is no sign of light. This may apply to property in Singapore also.

Investors in bubbles and ponzis should learn this lesson. It happens all the time.

Friday, December 08, 2017

Should the citizenship be taken away for being involved in a crime?

A former S League player was given a citizenship. Later, he was involved in a global match fixing scheme. He went to jail. After that, his citizenship was taken away.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/gaye-alassane-singapore-ci…

Do you agree with the decision to take away the citizenship?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Top priorities for PM Lee in 2018

What are the top priorities for PM Lee in 2018? Should they be reflected in Budget 2018?

Here are the views expressed by votes in a survey carried out in The Wisdom of the Crowd.

a) Improve wages and security of jobs - 38%
b) Reduce the cost of living - 30%
c) Solve the MRT problem - 17%
d) Settle his quarrel with his siblings - 9%
e) Play an active role as chair of ASEAN - 7%

The first two choices, totalling 68%, affect the financial well being of the citizens.

The likely increase in GST will make matters worse. It will increase the cost of living beyond the additional revenue that will flow to the government. It has an escalating effect. A 2% increase in GST is likely to translate to a 5% or 10% increase in prices in many places.

17% said that he should focus on solving the MRT problem. Perhaps he should just ask if the frequent breakdowns are due to the new signal system and if the teething problems are being sorted out, or remain unresolved?

Maybe, he can take the hard political decision to get Hong Kong MTR or Taipei MRT to manage the SMRT? That would be somewhat embarrasing for Singapore, but it could be not as bad as the frequent breakdowns.

How can he settle his quarrels with his siblings? It could be easy. He just need to disband the minsterial committee that looks into what to do with the house that Mr LKY lived in previously. He should just allow the house to remain a private residence.

Can he do much as chair of ASEAN? Will that help Singapore? We do not know. But he should not spend too much time on it, while there are so many problems to be solved in Singapore, right?

Should Jolovan Wham be charged for organising a silent protest in a MRT train?

Jolovan Wham is now being charged for organizing a silent protest in a MRt train. He arranged for a few young people to wear the tee-shirts and red a book on the alleged Marxist Conspiracy that occurred 30 years ago.

Should be he charged for this silent protest under a law that made it a crime for any protest to be carried out without a police permit.

Here are the views expressed in a vote in The Wisdom of the Crowd:

a) The public should be allowed to express their views and objections peacefully - 43%
b) The law should be removed as it goes against the constitutional right of free expression - 26%
c) The law should be applied only where the protest involves distrubing the peace - 17%
d) The law is quite clear. Any form of public protest is not allowed - 8%
e) He should be given a warning instead - 6%.

In summary, 86% find the charge to be in appropriate. Only 14% said that Jolovan should be charged.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=394




Main causes of a high level of depression

What are the main causes of the high level of depression in Singapore? There was some international comparision that showed our level to be among the worst in the world.

According to this survey in The Wisdom of the Crowd, the top factors are, in this order:

a) High cost of living - 50% voted
b) Fear of losing jobs and high demands of the job - 36%
c) Relationship within the family - 8%
d) High demand from the education system - 4%
e) Gambling and debts - 2%

Once in a while, we read about suicides due to the stress from the education system and from gambling debts, but they account for only 6% of the total.

The most important causes are still the high cost of living and employement issues.

http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=393

Thursday, December 07, 2017

Should we worry about the increasing number of elderly in the population?

Should we worry about the increasing number of elderly in the population?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Should condo owners be allowed to rent out their apartment under AirBNB?

Should condo owners be allowed to rent our their apartment for short term stay under AirBNB?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Budget 2018 - Clearing house for Wallet Payments

At the National Day Rally in 2017, PM Lee suggested that we should promote e-payment, similar to the AliPay and WeChat Pay in China.

Several operators have since launched their platforms (i.e. e-wallets) to allow e-payment using QR Code. They include GrabPay, NETS Pay and DBS PayLah.

Each operator makes a special effort to market their wallets to merchants and hawkers.

I am afraid that the proliferation of platforms will not help in promoting the use of e-payments. We cannot expect a merchant to sign up with several platforms to receive e-payments from customers on those platforms.

I suggest that the Monetary Authority of Singapore or the Association of Banks set up a clearing house for e-wallet payments. If the customer and merchant are on different platforms, they can clear their transactions through the clearing house. This is similar to the current process of clearing cheque payments through a clearing house.

The clearing house can also be the channel for customers to top up their e-wallets from their linked bank accounts and for merchants to transfer money to their linked bank accounts.

By using the clearing house, the wallet operators will not be saddled with the cost of making separate linkages to the banks. This will reduce the infrastructure cost for the wallet operators and the banks.

I also suggest that all e-wallet operators be licensed by the MAS. A condition of the licensing is that the operator has to set up a trust account in a bank that contains the total balance of all the balances in their customers' e-wallets. This will give confidence to customers that their e-wallets will be safe and that they will not lose money when their operator fails

I hope that my suggestion will be helpful to promote e-payments in Singapore, reducing the cost of payments and increase productivity and innovation.

Tan Kin Lian

Budget 2018 - Simplify CPF contribution

The following document shows how employers should calculate the CPF contributions for their employees. It contained 15 pages included tables in 11 annexes, numbered A to L. Click here.

It is a nightmare for a small employer to calculate the CPF contribution correctly for their employees. It is also costly for them to engage a developer to write the codes for the CPF contributions in their payroll systems.

I suggest that the government should simplify the contribution rates as follows:

a) Set up the table showing the "standard rates" for contribution rates applicable to employees in the private sector.
b) The contribution rates for older employees and permanent residents can be set certain percentages of the standard rates.

The public sector can be handled in a separate paper.

Tan Kin Lian

An alternative system for SMRT to consider

INTRODUCTION
I question the decision to invest $195 million in the new signal system for the NS and EW lines.

I find the amount to be excessive. I also dislike the many instances of "signal faults" that caused the frequent disruption in the train services and the collision at Joo Koon station.

Under the old signal system, we did not have the frequent breakdowns that are occuring now.

Could this be caused by bad implementation? Did we rush to implement the new system without proper testing?

More important, will we be able to see the light of day soon. Can we get over the frequent disruptions? How long more do we have to wait to see the improvement in service that was expected from this large investment?

Another question is - do we have an alternative?


AN ALTERNATIVE
I believe that we have an alternative to the Thales CBTC system. I know that they are a reputable system and their system is used in many cities.

But I do not accept that we need to implement an expensive system just because it is used in other cities. The more important question is - is there an alternative?

What is the system expected to achieve?

Take the NS line. It runs for 45 km and has 28 stations. The average distance between the station is 1.6 km.

If we despatch a train every 2 minutes, the average distance between 2 trains is 2 km, based on an average speed of 60 kph. 2 km is a long distance. Even if we reduce the interval of the trains to 1 minute, the average distances is 1 km.

We like the trains to arrive at each station on time. There could be local factors that cause the train to be temporarily behind schedule. The can be rectified by getting the train to increase the speed until they are back on schedule.

There is the challenge to get the train to stop at the exact spot on the platform, so that they train and platform doors can open. I prefer that this be achieved using local signals and sensors, rather than rely on the central system to tell the train exactly where to stop.

There is also the challenge to get the train to slow down or stop to avoid collison with the train or another obstacle ahead. Under normal circumstances, this should not happen, as the trains are all moving at the expected speed and there is a distance of 1 or 2 km between the trains.

But we have to deal with the unexpected emergencies.

COLLISION AVOIDANCE SYSTEM
I prefer each train to have a collision avoidance system. This is already installed in expensive cars. I like a similar system to be installed on each train. Remember, this is to be used only in emergencies. It is not intended to regulate the speed of the train.

CENTRAL SYSTEM
The speed of each train will be regulated by the central control system. This system has the primary goal of instructing the train on the speed that it should travel.

The central system should not be burdened with the task of getting the train to stop at the right spot in the platform (as it can be delegated to the local sensors and systems).

PROTOTYPE
I have developed a prototype of a system that describes how my approach can work. They can be viewed here.

Operation of the system
tklcloud.com/mrt/home.aspx

Signals of the system
tklcloud.com/mrt/page/7

Monitor screen for simulation
tklcloud.com/mrt/monitor.aspx

If you have any feedback, send email to kinlian@gmail.com

Wednesday, December 06, 2017

A better system of signage for MRT stations

The MRT station in Seoul uses a sensible system of signage.

They numbered their exits from 1, 2, 3, etc.

On passing the gantry, I can see a big signboard showing all the prominent buildings and the exit gate. Along the passage way, I see only the direction for each exit gate. The signage is small and easy to understand.

At some prominent places, there will be another board showing all the prominent buildings and exits.

I like the common sense of the people in Seoul. I hope that our planners follow their approach.

The algorithm for TKL train control system is working fine now

I managed to fine-tune the algorithm for the TKL train control system. It is now able to despatch a train every 1 minute and to have very few trains taken off the system, even if they have some train fault.

The monitor also display the trains that have a high percentage of being late. This indicates that the train may have some fault and should be inspected and repaired.

You can watch the monitor in
tklcloud.com/mrt/monitor.aspx.

My system does not cost $195 million. It probably can be installed for $20 million and should not cause the kind of breakdowns that have been experiened recently.

Keep a driver in the MRT train and expand the duties

SMRT invested $195 million to install a new signal system. I suspect that the main purpose is to allow the trains to be operated without a driver.

I disagree with this approach.

I will make the train run automatically (but at a much lower cost) and still have a driver in the train. The driver will take over in case of emergency.

At other times, the drivers will be responsible to watch the TV monitors for all the cabins in the train and to act on any disorderly behavior or render needed assistance to any passenger.

SMRT needs only 400 drivers. They have a workforce of more than 5,000 people. They can reduce the manpower in the maintenance department by using "smart maintenance" concepts. Currently, they have 900 more maintenance staff compared to Taipei MRT which handles a similar volume of traffic to SMRT.

Allow platform doors to be opened

A few breakdowns were caused by "signal fault" which caused the platform doors to remain closed.

There should be a manual override to open these doors and keep them open until they are fixed. We did not have platform doors in the past.

The platform doors were installed to prevent people falling or jumping to the tracks. The risk is quite small even if the platform doors are kept open. For people who are prone to suicides, they can also jump from buildings, right?

Many train stations in other countries do not have platform doors anyway. It is nice to have this safety measure, but it is not essential.

This kind of problem is faced by Hong Kong's MRT. They have a 10 hour delay that occurred half a year ago, caused by the same kind of problem.

Why did the government decide to act against Li Shengwu?

Why did the government decide to act against Li Shengwu?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Did Li Shengwu scandalised the court?

Did Li Shengwu scandalised the court by referring to a "pliant court system"?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Will the current chairman take over as CEO of SMRT?

Do you expect Seah MM (current chairman) to take over as CEO of SMRT?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Monday, December 04, 2017

Do we need an expensive and sophisticated train control system for the MRT?

Like Singapore, Hong Kong also paid a lot of money to upgrade their signal system. The average cost is about S$75 million per line. Singapore cost is about $85 million per line, but it is a few years later - probably due to inflation.

Hong Kong also faced problem with signal issues.

My common sense tells me that both countries paid too much to install a sophisticated system that is not necessary and is causing a lot of problems.

The trains run at a maximum speed of 80 kph. That is as fast as a car on the road. Allowing for the time for passengers to board and alight at each station, the average speed of the train is 45 kpm for the entire journey.

If the trains run every 2 minutes, the average distance between the trains is 2 km. That is a very long distance. Do we need a sophisticated and costly signal system to handle this operation?

I prefer to have an onboard collision avoidance system on each train. It will prevent collision.

Apart from this feature, I like to see a signal to tell a train that it is approaching a station, so that the train can slow down, and another signal to guide the train to the exact place to stop on the platform.

These signals are processed locally on the train and do not need to involve the control center.

The only control data that needs to be send by the control center is the speed for the train to take. This may be necessary to synchronise the speed of the various trains, and to ensure that they arrive punctually and are evenly spaced.

If the system is kept simple at the control center, the risk of "signal faults" would probably be minimised. Of course, we could still have local signal faults.

This is my common sense perspective. It can save a lot of money and give less breakdowns.

Should consumers shop for groceries online?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Should consumers shop for groceries online?

The views are quite mixed. However, the majority appears to think that it is a bad idea.

You can see the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=392

Is the government too intrusive?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is the PAP government too intrusive?

53% of the people who voted said that they are neglecting their duty to ensure that citizens have jobs to match the cost of living.

28% said that they are intrusive in the wrong issues, such as restricting freedom to express views.

15% said that they are neglecting their duty in the issues that need their attention.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=391

Are we paying too much for the Thales system?

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - Are we paying too much ($195 million) for the Thales signal system?

67% of the people who voted said that we should have a commision of inquiry to look into the issue.

14% said that the sum is grossly excessive.

Nobody said that the money was well spent.

You can look at the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=390

Should e-bikes be banned from walkways?

Should e-bikes be banned from walkways?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Sunday, December 03, 2017

Long queue at opening of Gong cha outlet

Is it good for people to queue for many hours at the opening of the Gong Cha outlet?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Do we need so many security guards in Singapore?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Do we need so many security guards in Singapore?

38% of the people who voted said that they are not effective in preventing crime.

30% said that they are unnecessary.

17% said that the higher cost of security guards will encourage management corporation to reduce their manpower.

This makes a total of 85%. Only 15% said that they serve a useful purpose.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=389

I agree with the votes. We tend to follow the past practice blindly, even though it did not serve a useful purpose. We need more people to be thinking and questionining.




Saturday, December 02, 2017

Signals required under TKL train control system

The TKL train control system requires 3 types of signals to be installed along the track. The passing train should be able to read the signals and act on them.

Type A) This tells the train that there is a station ahead and the train should reduce speed.

Type B) This tells the train exactly where to stop so that the train doors and platform doors are correctly aligned.

Type C) This tells the train the km point that it has just passed. The train will send the time and km point to the control center. These signals are installed every 0.5 km along the track. The train passes this signal every 20 seconds.

There will be redundancy of the signals. At each point, there will be signals being sent by four separate transmitters. Surely one of them will be received?

If any of the transmitter failed, it will not send any signal. The smart maintenance system will know which transmitter failed and can have it replaced.

All the signals send out a UUID to ensure that it is a valid signal. The transmitters are placed along the track and can only be read by the passing train.

The type C signals are used to compute the punctuality of the train and to adjust the speed, i.e. increase speed if the train is behind schedule and reduce speed if it is ahead of schedule.

The control center will also know the distance and speed of the preceding train. If the distance is less than 0.5 km, the following train will be set at the same speed.

There is also a collision avoidance system installed on the train. This is a last resort measure. No, not really the last resort. The last resort is a driver who can apply the brake manually.

The beauty of this approach is that it does not have to reply on GPS or radar.

Tan Kin Lian












TKL Train control system works perfectly

The TKL train control system works perfectly. It identifies the trains that have a fault and remove them from the track, so that the other trains can pass by and run on schedule.

How does it identify the faulty train?

The control system checks the punctuality of the train at every km of the track. If the train is behind schedule, it sends a signal to increase the speed. If it is ahead of schedule, it reduces the speed.

If the train continues to be behind schedule for 2 minutes, it is likely to be a faulty train. The passengers are discharged at the next station and the train is moved off to a side rail. This allows the other trains to pass by.

This situation can be seen clearly in the monitor screen here:
tklcloud.com/mrt/monitor.aspx

A train that is behind schedule for 0.5 minute appears in the screen. If this is a temporary situation, the train can catch up on the schedule and will disappear from the screen.

If the train is faulty, the delay will get worse, it will start to hold up the other trains. You can see up to 4 trains behind at 0.5 km interval.

When the faulty train is moved off the track, the other trains can move ahead and be on schedule.

The simulation despatches a train every 1 minute during peak hours. The control system works perfectly.

tklcloud.com/mrt/monitor.aspx

Tan Kin Lian
kinlian@gmail.com

Friday, December 01, 2017

Torture of disabled waitress

Are the sentences given to the couple who tortured the disabled waitress adequate?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Mandatory death sentence on drug offences

Malaysia has removed the mandatory death sentence for drug offences. They will let the judge decide on the appropriate sentence. Should Singapore adopt the same approach?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

A train control system at 10% of the cost and 2 times of capacity

I am giving a bonus to SMRT, LTA and to the transport minister.  They can use my TKL train control system at 10% of the price that they paid for the Thales system.

Here is the bonus.

My system can handle all the 3 lines (NS, EW and CC) in 2 directions, i.e. a total of 6 lines.

They can schedule a train to run every 1 minute during the peak hour and 1.5 min during the off peak hour. This is twice of the capacity of their previous system.

Anyway, the Thales system is now operating at a lower capacity due to signal problems.

Don't believe me?

Take a look at the monitor screen in tklcloud.com/mrt/monitor.aspx.

You can see some of the trains running slowly (due to simulated train and track fault) and holding back the following trains at a distance of 0.5 km.

When the faulty train is delayed by longer than 2 minutes, the central control directs the train to offload all the passengers and move to a side rail. This allows the following trains to pass and be back on schedule.

This can be seen in the monitor program. It is quite realistic.

If SMRT, LTA and Khaw BW wants to claim this bonus, they can contact me at kinlian@gmail.com

Tan Kin Lian


Why spend $195 million to eliminate 400 jobs?

I cannot understand the logic of the people in charge, up to the transport minister.

They spent $195 million to install the Thales system to allow a 20% increase in the number of trains running along the lines.

I think that their real purpose is to introduce a driverless system and eliminate 400 jobs of train drivers.

If the driver cost an average of $50,000 a year, the elimination of 400 jobs save $20 million a year. But the expendure of 1$195 million means that it takes 10 years to recover the cost of investment.

At the end of 10 years, we may have to spend another large sum to upgrade the signal system again, right?

Why try to eliminate 400 jobs when we are using 900 more maintenance staff compared to Taipei MRT for the same number of visitors?

After upgrading the signal system, we are getting more train breakdowns compared to the old system.




Adopt a smart maintenance approach

SMRT has 2,900 maintenance staff and handles about 2 million rides a day. This information is obtained from its train operations report.

Taipei MRT has a maintenace staff of 2,000 and handles the same number of rides. This information is obtained from a recent news report.

Why does SMRT need 45% more staff compared to Taipei MRT? Is it more inefficient and unproductive?

I wish to suggest how SMRT can improve the productivity of its maintenance staff. It can make better use of data analytics to identify the equipments that need to be replaced or repaired.

How can this be done?

Most of the equipment or devices send some data to the server to indicate its status. An equipment that is not functioning will not send any data. By analysing the database, it is possible to identify the malfunctioning equipments. The maintenance and inspection work can be directed towards these equipments. 

This approach may not apply to every equipment. But it can be applied to some of the equipments and help to improve the productivity. It is the smart way, isn't it?

I would describe it as a "smart maintenance" approach. I suspect that Taipei MRT probably uses the data in this manner to identify what needs to be rectified. It probably accounts for their higher productivity.

I hope that SMRT will consider this approach.

Fee benchmark for medical procedures

The Ministry of Health will introduce fee benchmark for medical procedures.

This is a good step. It is necessary. It is long overdue.

I congratulate the health minister Gan Kim Yong for taking this initiative.

Wait a minute. He has been health minister for over 6 years. Why does he took so long to realize that a serious problem has to be corrected?

Never mind. At least he realizes it at last. Anyway, this is the standard of Lee HL's ministers. It is deplorable.

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/…/ministry-of-health-to-intr…

SMRT should revert to the old signal system

There is something seriously wrong with the new signal system installed by SMRT. We did not have this kind of problem in the past.

I do not believe that a new signal system should cause this kind of frequent breakdowns and delays.
The SMRT trains run on two separate lines. They do not mix with other lines. The trains do not change from one line to another.

There is no need to introduce a complicated signal system for a simple operation and end up with endless troubles.

I suggest that SMRT should consider reverting to the old system. They can cancel the contract for $195 million to install the new system. They can look for a better alternative.

I read from Wikipedia that the old system can be reinstalled. See here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_South_MRT_Line

Should e-bikes be banned?

Should e-scooters be banned from the roads?
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Should should commuters do about the frequent train breakdowns?

What should commuters do about the frequent breakdowns of the SMRT trains?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Increase in GST

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - When do you expect the government to increase GST?

61% of the people who voted said that the increase will occur within two years after the next general election.

33% said that it will occur before the next general election.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=386


Prices n Fairprice and Cold Storage

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the difference in prices between Fairprice and Cold Storage supermarkets?

37% of the people who voted said that Fairprice is cheaper by about 5% before the rebate. 31% said that Fairprice is cheaper in only a few items.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=385

Is there a need for the government to raise taxes?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Is there a need for the govenrment to raise taxes?

54% of the people who voted said that the government does not need to increase tax as they have sufficient surpluses.

35% said that the government should be more prudent in their spending and should cut down on wasteful expenditure.

See a breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=387

Are the maintenance staff of SMRT productive?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Are the maintenance staff of SMRT productive?

55% of the people who voted said that the supervision of the staff is poor. 24% said that the staff morale is low. 21% said that they are new to the job.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=388

Silent protest in MRT train

Should Jolovan Wham be charged for organizing the silent protest in the MRT train?
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

A high level of depression

What is the most important cause of the high level of depression in Singapore.
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

A new signal system for SMRT

I have built a new signal system for SMRT.

The new system is explained in www.tklcloud.com/mrt.

1. This is a simulation of the North South Line of the MRT system in Singapore.
2. It dispatches a train every 2 minute during the peak hours and every 3 minutes during the off-peak hours and stops service between midnight and 6 am. The train travels at an average speed of 60 kmp and stays for 30 seconds at a station for passengers to disembark and embark.
3. The simulator varies the speed according to the condition of the train and the track.
4. A signal is sent to the control center showing the time that a train passes each km point along the track.
5. The control center calculates the punctuality of the train and increases the speed if the train is behind the schedule or reduces the speed if the train is ahead of schedule.
6. An collision avoidance device is installed on each train to ensure a gap of at least 0.5 km from the train ahead. If this distance falls below this gap, the brake is applied automatically.
7. If a train is 2 minutes behind schedule due to a train fault, the control center directs the train to be moved off the track so that the following trains can pass this faulty train.

The total cost of the system, including the devices on the trains and the tracks and the software for the control center should cost not more than $19.5 million. This is just 10% of the budget that was paid for the Thales system.

The Thales system has given a lot of problems and caused several breakdowns and a serious collision.

My system should perform better. However, I need SMRT and LTA to have an open mind an consider my system.

I have built a simulation to show how 60 trains perform on the two directions of the NS lines during the day. I have also built in the simulation for three trains, T1, T2 and T3, to develop train faults. The control center software was able to detect the problem and move them off the track. This allowed the remaining trains to perform normally. My system does not have the delays of several hours that is experienced now.

I hope that SMRT and LTA will at least monitor my simulation.

Tan Kin Lian



Sunday, November 26, 2017

Here are some options before raising GST

Someone asked me - is it fair for the government to raise taxes when they are using only half of the investment income from the reserves. Should they use all of the income before they start to raise taxes? What is the rationale for using only half of the income?

Here is my answer.

I support the rationale to use only half of the investment income. The other half of the investment income should be retained to preserve the real value of the reserves.

Over the long term, the average investment yield is 6%. Half of this yield, say 3%, should be considerd as being contributed by inflation. The other half can be considered as real income.

However, before raising taxes, the government should look into the following items rigorously:

a) Are we spending money prudently? The spending of $195 million for the new MRT signalling system is an example. Is this spending prudent?

There is just one of many cases of big item spending. We need a system to evaluate the spending to be prudent and necesary. We should avoid wasteful spending.

b) Should a part of the proceed for land sale be used to fund the infrastructure spending, rather than rely on taxation?

c) Should additional taxes come from the wealthy and the high income earners, rather than from GST, which hits the lower income hardest (even though some of those affected are compensated by GST rebates).





Shop online for groceries

Should consumers shop for groceries online?
Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Is the government too intrusive?

Is the PAP government too intrusive? Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Are we paying too much for the Thales signal system?

Are we paying too much ($195 million) for the Thales signal system?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

How to fix the problems with the NS and EW lines

The NS and EW lines had broken down frequently.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is the best way to fix the problems with the NS and EW lines?

50% of the people who voted said that SMRT should recruit more engineers and technicians to carry out the repair work at night. (I learned recently that SMRT had 45% more people on maintenance compared to Taipei MRT which carries a similar number of passengers).

The other people voted for three other options.

You can see the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=383

Should Khaw BW continue as transport minister?

The performance of the MRT system worsened considerably after Khaw BW was appointed as minister of transport. He was supposed to lead the change to solve the problem.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should Khaw BW continue as minister of transport?

62% of the people who voted said that he should resign. Another 20% said that he should commit hara kiri - which is a worse outcome for him. This made a total of 82%.

Another 18% said that he should continue to turn the situation around.

See the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=382

Is Singapore maintaining a high standard of integrity and non-corruptibility?

In the past, Singapore has a global brand name for a high standard of integrity and non-corruptibility. Are we maintaining this standard or have we slightened in recent years?

I posed this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd. 78% of those who voted expressed serious concern that the standard had slackened considerably. Another 14% said that we had slackened by not to a serious extend. Only 9% said that we are maintaining our standard.

See a breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=384



Saturday, November 25, 2017

An alternative to the $195 million system

LTA and SMRT spent $195 million to install a new signaling system for the NS and EW lines. The aim is to allow more trains to run on the line and to reduce the interval from 120 seconds to 100 seconds. I find this reduction to be quite small.

I understand that in some cities the train run at 1 min intervals during peak hours. This can be achieved without installing an expensive system.

If there is a 1 min separation and the train travel at 60 kpm, there is a distance of 1 km between trains. We do not need an expensive system to manage the movement of the trains.

This is how I envisage that a system could be constructed. I would install a "collision avoidance system" in each train that will achieve the 0.5 km separation. If the train in front is more than 0.5 km ahead, the train at travel at the "full speed" of 60 kpm. If the distance falls below 0.5 km, the following train will slow down.

We also need the train to be able to detect a sensor on approaching each station and slow down its speed and come to a complete halt on the platform. We also need each train to receive a signal from the control center to slow down or speed up or to move off the track.

I would make a guess that the cost of installing the intelligence in each train would be $50,000 to $100,000.

We have 200 trains on operating on the NS and EW lines. A budget of $10 to $20 million would be sufficient to equip these trains.

We will need a central system to monitor the passengers in the stations and to send out more trains during the peak periods and reduce the trains during the off peak period. The control center should also give instructions for trains to move off the track, if they are not working well.  Perhaps this central system can cost another $10 million.

I would still employ 400 drivers for the 200 trains at a budget of $50,000 per driver. This will cost $20 million a year and give employment to 400 people. As the trains are virtually automated, the driver does not have much to do, except in an emergency. I would assign to the drivers the general duty of "keeping an eye on the train".

Do we need so many security guards in Singapore?

Do we need so many security guards in Singapore. With increase in the wages, should the management corporations review the need for these guards?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Friday, November 24, 2017

Top priority for PM Lee

What is the top priority for PM Lee to address in 2018?

Five options are provided in The Wisdom of the Crowd. You can view the votes of the participants in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=378

A more active role in Asean

PM Lee wants to play a more active role as chair of ASEAN in 2018.

61% of the people who voted in the Wisdom of the Crowd said that he should focus on solving the problems faced by Singaporeans daily.

Another 30% gave a negative view of his efforts. This made a total of 91% who do not like his initiative.

Only 9% said that his initiative will raise the profile of Singapore.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=377



Revert to the old signal system?

Should SMRT revert back to the old signal system?

42% of the people who voted in the Wisdom of the Crowd said that we should continue with the new signal system and fixed the problems that arise. Another 33% said that it is not possible to revert to the old system now. This made a total of 75%.

The remaining 25% are in favor of reverting to the old system.

See a breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=381

Accident in Joo Koon MRT station

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - What is your view about the train accident in Joo Koon MRT station?

68% of the people who voted expressed concern about the many breakdowns and incidents involving SMRT. Another 25% atttribute the problems to the "cultural issues". This make a total of 93%.

Only 7% express understanding and support for SMRT.

You can view the breakdowns of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=380

Tuesday, November 21, 2017

Allow the MRT to be closed in sections for thorough repair work

I proposed that a section (about 4 km) of the MRT system be shut down for about a week to allow for a thorough inspection, maintenance, repair and testing of all the components of the system.

During this time, 100 buses will be used to provide a bridging service to carry the passengers across the section that is closed down.

I would use this method to carry out the thorough repair work one section at a time and to complete all the work over one year.

Somebody asked - where can you find 100 buses?

I do not know why some people have a habit of looking for excuses not to take action. I checked Google and found that we have 17,000 buses in Singapore.

It should be quite easy to set find 100 buses that can be used for this bridging service. I am sure that the private bus owners would be delighted to provide this service, if the fee is attractive. We should also be able to use the public buses, as there should be some spare capacity.




Are the maintenance stff of SMRT productive?

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Are the maintenance staff of SMRT productive?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Asean should stay united

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - PM Lee said that ASEAN should stay united on issues of concern. What are your views?

75% of the people who voted said that this is not likely and gave two reasons.

You can see the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=375

Re-employ maintenance staff

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Should SMRT re-employ the maintenance staff that it retrenched earlier?

Most of the people who voted said that SMRT should re-employ these maintenance staff. They chose three options.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=374

Monday, November 20, 2017

More taxes?

Is there a need for the government to raise taxes?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Trans Pacific Partnership without America

I asked this question in the Wisdom of the Crowd - What are your views about the Transpacific Partnership without America?

41% of the people who voted said that it is time for the world to learn how to live without America. I take it to mean that they are in favor of the revised TPP involving 11 countries.

However, 34% said that the agreement is still not good for ordinary people and another 18% said that a TPP without America will not work. That made a total of 52%.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=372

Design of the Thale system

When one train collides into another train at Joo Koon station, the statement attributed it to a bug in the software where one essential element was removed.

This raised a bigger issue of concern.

It meant that the train did not have a local sensor to know that there is another large object ahead. It depend entirely on the software to control its movement.

Surely, this is a dangerous way to design the system?

The central control system should be responsible for setting the key parameters, e.g. maximum speed of the train, diversion to another track and other high level decisions.

The train should have its own sensor to avoid colliding with another large object ahead, which could be another train or a large foreign object that fell on the track.

The local sensors should also be responsible to stop the train at the exact spot on the platform and open the platform doors.

I do not know what are the benefits of using a central system to control the detailed aspect of the train, but I would consider the design to be unsatisfactory.

Why did we spend $195 million on the Thale system? What are the real benefits? They seem to create big safety concerns.

Do you agree?

Tan Kin Lian

Sunday, November 19, 2017

Increase in GST

When do you expect the government to increase GST?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Prices at supermarkets

What is the difference in prices between Fairprice and Cold Storage supermarkets?

Give your vote in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg

Platform doors cannot open

There was an occasion where a SMRT train was delayed as the platform door cannot open. It was described as a "signal problem". This occured with the Downtown line, which was a new line.

We do not know if all the doors cannot open, or it only affects some doors.

If all the doors cannot open, the proper procedure is to proceed to the next station. It does inconvenience the passengers who wish to alight or board at the "faulty station" but it should not cause the whole line to be held up.

A better design is to have each door open individually, if the cabin is at the door. This is a local sensor. It is similar to the door of an elevator.

If some doors cannot open due to a faulty sensor, it should not affect the other doors of the train. The passengers can move to the doors that are operating properly.

It would be a bad design if the opening of the platform and train doors are controlled centrally. It is better for it to be controlled by local sensors.

I do not have information about the actual situation. Can someone enlighten me?

Tan Kin Lian








Cable problems in SMRT

I saw several postings about the problem faced by SMRT that cables are not labelled properly.

I searched Google and found that there are two types of cables - data cable and power cable.

I suspect that the problem probably lies with the data cable. Let me deal with it first.

I understand that there are equipment that allows two technicians to test the cables. One technican sends a signal down a cable and the other technician see which cable has the signal. The contact each other by mobile phone to coordinate their work.

It can be quite troublesome, if there are a few dozen cables to test, but it should be possible. The data cables in my home are tested by the technicians in this manner.

If there is a problem, it should be possible to identify the cable that is faulty. For example, we expect a signal to be received, but it was not. The signal is required to be sent from one end and to be received by at the other end. This can be traced and rectified. It is hard work but it can be done.

We still have the problem of the low quality of the cables. The longer term solution is to replace all the cables. In the contract to install the new cables, we should specify high quality cables and have a quality control inspection.

We probably do not need to have several hundred cables running all over the place. All the cables at each station should send their signals to a local server who can then communicate with the central system. Using this approach, we can handle tens of thousand of signals without using many cables.

Suppose there are 10,000 devices to be monitored in each station. All these devices send their signals to a server in the station. If any device is not working, i.e. no signal received or the wrong signal is received, the local technician can inspect the problem and fix it.

For example, if a local sensor is not working, it can be identified and fixed locally.

Take the case of the pumps that were not working in the flooded Bishan tunnel.

There must be some local sensor to detect the height of the water in the tunnel. If the water level is too high, an alert can be sent to the local server and the central server.

The central control room can check the monitor of the local station to make sure that the station staff is monitoring the signals.

The data that needs to be shared centrally can be send from the local server to the central server. These data are most likely to concern the trains passing through and also sensors on "foreign objects" that are found on the tracks.

I consider myself to be an expert in data base processing and storage. I understand what is needed to carry out the sensing and to send the data to a database for processing and for alerts to be sent out.

I wonder if SMRT and LTA have people who are able to use the data in a "common sense" way to handle the maintenance and inspection. Based on the problems that have occured recently, I think they do not have the experts who can take charge.

Maybe SMRT or LTA should contact me? I know that the new chairman of SMRT, Seah Moon Meng, is an expert in this area as well. I hope that he can address the issue. But he can also contact me to share ideas.

Tan Kin Lian




How to overcome problems with the MRT signal system

SMRT faced a lot of problems in introducing a new signalling system. It has led to many breakdowns and one serious collision due to "signal problems".

I asked the question - what are the signal problems. A few people explained that SMRT is trying to run two signal systems. The train has to change from one signal system to another system on the journey.

This is a bad way to implement the change. If I were consulted, I would never recommend this approach. It is based on my "common sense".

The experts may give some "technical reasons" for adopting their approach. They will find it very hard to convince me.

What is my approach?

Take a look at Google trying to implement a driverless car on the road. The technical problems that Google has to overcome is porbably ten times more complex that a driverless train running on a track.

How does Google approach it?

They develop a driverless car using sensors. The sensor will look for other driverless car on the road, but will also allow for manually driven cars and pedestrians and even dogs running on the road.

The driverless cars detect these objects and other driverless cars on the road.

If one lane contains only driverless cars, it can give the instruction for all the cars to travel at higher speed. If any driverless car has to slow down to change lane or avoid a "foreign object", the other cars get the signal and will slow down together.

The same approach can be used for the train system. It should cater for driverless train and mannually driven trains. It should also cater for people or dogs falling on to the track.

If all the trains are driverless, it is possible to get them to travel at higher speed. If some trains are manually driven, they will be travelling at a slower speed. The other trains will adjust their speed accordingly.

All the trains need to have sensors to detech "foreign objects" and to transmit their speed to the control room. The control room can then set the maximum speed that the train can travel.

If there is a stationary object ahead, the train has to stop. The speed of braking depends on the distance.

Under this concept, there is no need for any train to "change from one signal system to another system".

The AI in each train will take the data from its sensors, e.g. to look at "foreign objects" and use it to slow down when necessary. The speed of the train is sent to the control room.

The control room knows the speed of all the trains on the tracks and can indicate the speed that the train can travel. This speed has to be reduced, if necessary, based on any obstructions that the actual train may sense on the road.

Under my system, I would also expert some other sensors at the station and on the tracks to send signals of foreign objects on the track and whether these objects are stationary or moving. These signals can be processed in the control algorithm.

The ideal operating condition is that all the trains on the line are driverless and there is no foreign object. The trains can all travel fast and achieve the goal of 1 train arriving every 2 minutes at the station. We will reach this stage eventually when all the trains have been converted to the driverless system.

I may not be an expert in train control systems, but I have some "common sense". If any experts wishes to add their views to help the discussion, they are welcomed to do so.

Tan Kin Lian

Higher prices for HDB resale flats

Prices of HDB resale flats have increased. Is this good or bad for the public at large.

I asked this question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - Are you worried about the increase in prices of HDB resale flats?

84% of the people who voted said that the trend is worrisome. The government will use the higher prices to increase the price of new flats.

16% voted for three other options.

You can view the breakdown of the votes in
www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg




How to deal with crowded food courts

The Japanese has a system where customers stand and eat at food outlets. This takes less space. Customers also finish their meals quickly.

I offered this as an option to deal in a question in The Wisdom of the Crowd - how can we deal with crowded food courts?

Only 12.5% of the people who voted chose this option.

52% said that we should encourage customers to share tables at the food court.

Click here to view the breakdown of the votes.
http://www.wisdomofthecrowd.sg/chart.aspx?ID=370




Blog Archive